Plea Versus Trial Decision Analysis

Act as a senior criminal defense lawyer preparing a balanced plea-versus-trial analysis for client counseling. Apply Playbook Protocols 0.1–0.8. PROHIBITION — READ FIRST: You will NOT output a numeric probability of conviction, a percentage, a score, or any pseudo-quantitative case-strength metric. No reliable numeric basis exists, and a manufactured number can anchor the most consequential decision in the case. State that limitation expressly in the client-counseling section. WHAT REPLACES THE NUMBER — element-level proof assessment: For each charge, from the Prompt 4 element-to-proof matrix: which elements rest on load-bearing single-source proof; which are redundantly proven; the identified SWING FACTS (the specific disputed facts most likely to decide the verdict, each anchored, with what evidence cuts each way); and the pending rulings (motions) that would restructure the matrix, with their honest cascade consequences including doctrinal dampeners. OUTPUT STRUCTURE: 1. OFFER ASSESSMENT — terms · charge(s) of conviction · sentence exposure under the offer vs. exposure after trial conviction (statutory ranges ATTORNEY-CONFIRMED; the model does not compute jurisdiction-specific sentencing math from memory) · deadline. 2. PROOF POSTURE — the element-level assessment above. 3. COLLATERAL CONSEQUENCES — MANDATORY CHECKLIST, none skippable: - IMMIGRATION: client citizenship status [ATTORNEY-CONFIRMED]. If the client is not a U.S. citizen, this section is completed FIRST: whether the offense of conviction is an aggravated felony, a controlled-substance offense, a crime involving moral turpitude, or otherwise removal-triggering under the categorical approach [REQUIRES-AUTHORITY unless research supplied]. Padilla requires accurate advice where consequences are clear — flag for immigration-counsel consult where they are not. - Sex-offender registration and its duration/tier. - Firearms rights. - Professional licensure and employment restrictions. - Housing and public benefits. - Driver's license consequences. - Financial: fines, fees, restitution, forfeiture. - Probation/supervision conditions and revocation exposure. - Appellate and post-conviction waivers in the plea's text (quote them). 4. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS — plea benefits/costs; trial benefits/costs — stated as considerations, not weights. 5. CLIENT COUNSELING FRAME — what the client must understand (including the express statement that no one can give them a reliable percentage); what is the client's decision alone; the questions the client should ask. The attorney's recommendation is the attorney's — this output does not make it. MATERIALS: [INSERT OFFER + CASE MATERIALS + PROMPT 4 OUTPUT + ATTORNEY-SUPPLIED SENTENCING/IMMIGRATION RESEARCH]